LET'S PLAY DROUGHT SCRAMBLE

The dought is taking its toll in so many ways.  Where'd you get the hay?  What did it cost?  Have you sold your calves?  Do you have enough pasture?  Are you planning to early wean?  What are pairs  bringing?  Can you find me some hay?  I might have cows for sale this fall.  What's this calf market dong?  Wish I'd sold mine earlier.  Do you know of a good feedlot.  They say corn's getting higher than a cat's back!  Did that fire get on you?  You name it, everyone's concerned and rightfully so.

But, the one question I haven't heard yet,  How's your golf game?  That's the only one I can answer for sure.  My golf game is most certainly not good.  Been too busy finding hay and all that goes along with finding hay to play much golf.  Then when I do, the phone gets to ringing or emails start coming in and I loose my concentration.  As if I ever had any concentration to start with.  Went golfing with a friend just the other day and wouldn't you know it, a lady friend sent me one of those mushy emails (should have left the device in the pickup) and in no time I couldn't hit the broad side of a barn let alone a golf ball.  Golf balls, if you don't know, are about the size of a politician's brain and thus damn hard to connect with.  Plus, tri-focals don't help much other than making it look like you're wearing an extra pair of shoes. 

So, needless to say, it's been a frustrating spring and summer for all of us in the livestock business.  Time will have to be the one to answer a lot of the questions.  But, if I had a crystal ball I'd be asking the man upstairs just what kind of winter he has in store for us.  And you thinking,  what business do I have with a crystal ball when I can't manage a golf ball, right?  Pray for rain or snow or highwater,  what ever we can get.  We need it!   

YOU CAN FIND IT BUT YOU CAN'T GET IT HOME

Finding hay for clients has been a challenge the past few weeks and looks as though it will continue to be a struggle.  The drought circle is big so competition is keen and freight has become a huge factor.  Ranchers are at their wits end trying to decide if they should buy high dollar hay or sell down and already sold down cow herd.

Get this, our neighbors to the North have a bumper hay crop and have had for several years.  There in lies the problem.  They haven't had a need to transport hay so consequently all the Canadian hay truckers have found other ways to make a living.  Canadian hay raisers can't find trucks to move the product South.  U.S. truckers are finding it difficult to get licensed and legal for crossing the border.  Have they been quilty of taking business away from the folks up North?  I think not.

But I do find it interesting that Billings, Montana can have the driest year in over 66 years and 250 miles North of us hay is in abundance yet we can't get it across the border where it is so badly needed.  Wouldn't you know it, our congressmen are busy running for office while our trucks are standing still.  It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to have cows starving on one side and hay rotting on the other side of an imaginary line when you're in the cow business.       

WHAT THE HAY?

 Where are hay prices headed?   It appears to be supply and demand at it's finest, however, when greed and ingorance enter the equation, look out!  A trucker/haybroker friend and I put in an 18 hour day and 780 miles yesterday in search of hay for our clients.  Yes, there's lots of hay in Northern Montana (where they get rain) but little or none that hasn't already been spoken for.  If you need hay, you could be too late!  The highways were lined with hay trucks headed West and the country roads were loaded with hay seekers knocking on doors ready to buy on the spot.  It's a frenzy I wouldn't have believed had I not experienced it first hand.

Fortunately we landed several hundred ton of high quality, put up right, alfala thru a business contact who had promisied to hold his supply (24 hours) until we could get there for a look.  At another location, we found a couple hundred ton of  the 'Turd Maker' kind that was put up dry (a little cheat grass) and at the advice of my trucker friend, not freightable.

Where's it all headed?  I shipped pairs to Western Montana last week off an outfit that had to cut numbers due to drought and two of their neighbors showed up at the chute saying they too were overstocked and were seeking answers.  This week they were splitting pairs at the Billings sale barn and many yearlings are coming off grass early.  We'll most likely see some early weaning in the near future.  How's this going to affect the calf prices down the road?  Where are corn prices going?  Can we believe the government numbers?  Shall we buy hay or sell cows?  Demand for quality protein and the taste of beef combined with variable weather patterns can be in interesting dynamic at best.