Are the Drovers in the Driver's Seat ?

I've said it before and I'll say it again...Supply and demand at it's finest. Cow numbers continue to shrink, while world demand for our product continues to climb. That's great positioning for U.S. cattle producers and their allied industry partners. It certainly looks to me like  the Drovers are in the driver's seat at least for the next several years. In past years, cow numbers have struggled to build back and now, due to drought in some areas are experiencing new growth pressure. Those forced to sell at least are selling on a strong market while those with ample moisture may be able to pay down some debt plus put a little jingle in the bank for their next not so rainy day. The question is, how do you get back in, if and when the rains do come, and they will. The cow factory is and will continue to be in demand and priced accordingly. It's sad, that in our business, we make it off of each other, but that's the way it is. We can't prevent drought and can only do so much to mitigate its effects but in the cattle business if we pay attention and become a student of the business we will reap rewards enough of the time to live the good life. What's more valuable than that?  Too bad our lawmakers can't get their act together so we can focus on what we do best. Ever wonder how many of them have ever been forced to liquidate...for reasons other than a sex scandal.       

Hay piles and cow numbers

The drought in the South is causing somewhat of a sucking sound.  Hay going one way and cows going the other.  There's a lot of buzz in Montana about the price of hay and it seems like the whole state of Idaho is in Montana looking for hay to replace theirs that went to California. Supply and demand at it finest.

At this time last year most ranches in Montana were sitting on a very comfortable supply going into the winter.  In many cases a two year supply.  Mother Nature took care of that in short order with one of the most severe winters in recorded history.  That along with spring floods and double average rain fall which kept some hay fields under water most of the spring is causing locals to take a deep look at their own needs before letting go.  I get several call each week asking about hay for sale.  This would be the year to own a 'big square' baler!  You'd be in the driver's seat if you had hay to sell.

So, how about cow numbers?  Recent Ag reporters are calling cow numbers in a continued downhill slide.  I got a call out of Oklahoma this week looking for a place to park a cow herd for two years in hopes of surviving the dry pasture conditions until a grass comeback is evident.  Many ranches in Texas and Oklahoma have liquidated their entire cow herds.  Yesterday I listened to a report of a five mile long line of trucks and trailers waiting to unload at an Oklahoma stockyard.  Feed is high, grass is gone, what do you do?

For those that have feed and cows it looks good and looks to stay that way for a few years.  I am no market forecaster but if you have abundant rain and own the cows, hang on the ride should be good!

Have a great summer weekend.



 

Papa's three little Monkeys

  These three were all born the same day within a couple of hours of each other while I was at the PBR in Billings.  Doubled my grandchild population with just a few labor pains, several phone calls and a couple of trips up the stairs at MetraPark to get cell reception.  Twins on the left and a single on the right.  Friends said I talked like a sheepherder that day. Seems like I remember studdering a little too.  One of my twins had the twins and my single had the single.  The twin's mother waited until she was 43 to have her first babies.  When I was 43 years old she had completed college!  Either she was slow or I was fast but I'll leave that up to those of you that know me to decide.  One thing for sure, there's enough energy on that bench to pull a stock trailer from Montana to Texas and back several times over! 

Maybe it's not true that around here 'We work every day...not just sale day!'



Is she headed for the pros?

  Seems like a lot of my time lately has been spent behind the wheel and judging by the pictures on my camera there hasn't been an abundance of bull sale material. Visited daughters from Dallas to Big Fork in the last month.   This week, my daughter and family from Dallas will be in Montana for some much needed time in a cooler climate and hopefully some camping and fishing.
  Oh, and don't let me forget to mention that the daughter here in Billings just happened to do a kitchen remodel after the bull sale season. A finish carpenter I am not! Give me an axe and a bucket of puddy and I can get buy. In fact,  I'm much better qualified as an old and slow lifter, holder, gofer, stand back and watcher. Somebody had to be there to let the cabinet guys in, right? It's called working for a burger and a beer.  At any rate, we plan to hit the ground running the first of August.  Be watching for our new web site at www.billpelton.com.

He would prefer a bigger, faster water craft.

Independence Day 2011

I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America and to the Republic for which it stands, one nation, under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.

Some fun in the sun at the Saturday night performance of the Red Lodge 4th of July rodeo.  "My Daddy is from Idaho and he's entered in the bareback riding so watch for him 'cause he'll be coming out of that chute right over there."

Heath DeMoss

It's tradition for the Red Lodge 'Home of Champions' Rodeo to  attract the top cowboys and cowgirls from around the world. On Saturday night Lousiana's Heath DeMoss set the pace with a score of 84 in the Saddle Bronc event.